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Chase Claypool

Chase Claypool Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Chase Claypool Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+404/-870).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -853 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -870.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Chase Claypool has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.9% since the start of last season, which places him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.

The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.

Chase Claypool has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (60.0 per game) than he did last year (81.0 per game).

Chase Claypool's 35.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 50.0.

More Chase Claypool Player Props

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