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Chase Brown

Chase Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Cincinnati Bengals vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Chase Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-116/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +109 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -116.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Cincinnati Bengals may take to the air less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) because they be rolling out backup quarterback Joe Flacco.
  • The projections expect the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.1% red zone pass rate.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see 132.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • While Chase Brown has earned 80.0% of his offense's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much smaller piece of Cincinnati's rushing attack near the end zone in this game at 68.0%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is implied by the Bengals being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • The 5th-fewest plays in football have been called by the Cincinnati Bengals this year (a mere 52.6 per game on average).
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.
  • The Cincinnati offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • Chase Brown's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 87.0% to 78.0%.

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