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Chase Brown

Chase Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Chase Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +158 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals may pass less in this week's game (and call more carries) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Joe Flacco.
  • A throwing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 66.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.9% red zone pass rate.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are forecasted by the model to run only 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The Bengals have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 50.3 plays per game.
  • Chase Brown has been given 90.0% of his team's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
  • In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Cincinnati Bengals ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
  • Chase Brown's 82.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys an impressive regression in his receiving skills over last season's 87.0% rate.

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