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Chase Brown

Chase Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Chase Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -124 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals may pass less in this week's game (and call more carries) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning.
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bengals are underdogs this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.
  • The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 5th-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (60.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cincinnati Bengals.
  • The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.51 seconds per snap.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • While Chase Brown has garnered 65.3% of his offense's red zone carries in games he has played since the start of last season, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Cincinnati's rushing attack near the goal line this week at 82.1%.
  • The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
  • Chase Brown's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 87.1% to 65.0%.
  • Chase Brown has rushed for 0.44 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL among running backs (84th percentile).
  • The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.6%) versus RBs since the start of last season (79.6%).

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