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Chase Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-110/-114).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 62.4% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.Right now, the most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (65.0% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Bengals.When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the towering 94th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a staggering 4.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 17.9.Chase Brown grades out in the 85th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.13 per game.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are predicted by the projection model to call just 61.2 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.Out of all RBs, Chase Brown grades out in the 97th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, taking on 68.6% of the usage in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone.As it relates to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bengals ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.
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