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Chase Brown

Chase Brown Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Chase Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+121/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +121.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bengals to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 65.2% red zone pass rate.
  • Chase Brown has accumulated a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among running backs. (That may not sound too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Chase Brown slots into the 95th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 22.3 mark this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are expected by the projection model to call only 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
  • Among all RBs, Chase Brown ranks in the 96th percentile for red zone carries this year, accounting for 70.0% of the workload in his team's rushing attack near the end zone.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
  • Chase Brown's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 87.0% to 77.1%.

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