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Chase Brown Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-107/-107).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 69.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 69.5 @ -107.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.51 seconds per snap.Our trusted projections expect Chase Brown to garner 18.0 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.The model projects Chase Brown to be a more important option in his offense's running game in this contest (81.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (66.9% in games he has played).With an impressive rate of 61.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (86th percentile), Chase Brown has been among the top pure rushers in football since the start of last season.As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Minnesota's group of DEs has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Bengals may pass less in this week's game (and call more carries) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning.At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bengals are underdogs this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the least run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 34.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.Chase Brown's 2.3 adjusted yards per carry this season signifies a material decrease in his rushing skills over last season's 4.4 mark.
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