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Chase Brown

Chase Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Chase Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-133/+124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -133.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Bengals being a big -10-point underdog in this game.
  • The projections expect the Bengals as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect Chase Brown to garner 4.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
  • Chase Brown's 20.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for running backs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are anticipated by the model to run just 61.5 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bengals this year (just 48.2 per game on average).
  • Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Detroit Lions, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.8 per game) this year.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • Chase Brown's 2.2 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a meaningful decline in his receiving prowess over last season's 3.4 mark.

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