My Account Log Out
 
 
Chase Brown

Chase Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Chase Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-103/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -103.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by our trusted projection set to run 67.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week.
  • In this contest, Chase Brown is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 93rd percentile among running backs with 5.5 targets.
  • Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 17.9.
  • Chase Brown rates as one of the leading RBs in the pass game this year, averaging an excellent 3.9 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
  • The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Chase Brown's 80.8% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a significant drop-off in his receiving talent over last year's 87.1% rate.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™