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Chase Brown

Chase Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Chase Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by our trusted projection set to run 67.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week.
  • In this contest, Chase Brown is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 93rd percentile among running backs with 5.5 targets.
  • In regards to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the lofty 94th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a superb 4.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 17.9.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
  • The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Chase Brown's 80.8% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a significant drop-off in his receiving talent over last year's 87.1% rate.
  • Chase Brown's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating a mere 5.19 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 6.13 mark last year.

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