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Chase Brown

Chase Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Chase Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-112/-112).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 62.4% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • In this week's contest, Chase Brown is forecasted by the model to place in the 94th percentile among RBs with 5.2 targets.
  • When it comes to air yards, Chase Brown grades out in the towering 94th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a staggering 4.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 17.9.
  • Chase Brown checks in as one of the top RB receiving threats this year, averaging a terrific 23.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 94th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are predicted by the projection model to call just 61.2 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bengals ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Chase Brown's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 87.1% to 79.6%.

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