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Chase Brown

Chase Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Chase Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bengals to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week.
  • The model projects Chase Brown to garner 4.6 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • With an elite 14.7% Target Share (96th percentile) this year, Chase Brown stands as one of the pass-game running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
  • Chase Brown has accumulated a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among running backs. (That may not sound too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are expected by the projection model to call only 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
  • Chase Brown's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 87.0% to 77.1%.
  • Chase Brown's pass-game efficiency has declined this season, compiling a mere 4.68 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 6.12 rate last season.

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