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Charlie Kolar

Charlie Kolar Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Charlie Kolar Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see 132.7 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
  • Charlie Kolar has gone out for fewer passes this year (24.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (11.1%).
  • Charlie Kolar's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 79.7% to 87.6%.
  • With a remarkable 12.3 adjusted yards per target (96th percentile) this year, Charlie Kolar ranks as one of the best pass-game TEs in football.
  • Charlie Kolar is positioned as one of the best tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging an outstanding 4.75 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 89th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a huge favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
  • The model projects the Ravens as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 51.6 per game on average).
  • The weather report calls for 24-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 27.1 per game) this year.

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