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CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
CeeDee Lamb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 9th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.40 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • In this week's game, CeeDee Lamb is anticipated by the predictive model to land in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.9 targets.
  • CeeDee Lamb's 66.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in football: 92nd percentile for wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 5 points.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
  • The Cowboys O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
  • CeeDee Lamb's 65.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a material reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 68.6% mark.

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