CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 17, 2022

Updated Dec 30, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 69.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 69.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to garner 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
CeeDee Lamb has been a much bigger part of his team's passing game this year (29.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (19.7%).
CeeDee Lamb has totaled many more air yards this season (95.0 per game) than he did last season (79.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.