Cedrick Wilson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Cedrick Wilson

WR · Miami Dolphins

Touchdowns

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2025

Updated Nov 16, 2025 6:07 PM UTC

Analysis

Cedrick Wilson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+700/-1300).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +840 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +700.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This year, the deficient Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded a staggering 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 4th-worst rate in football.
The Commanders defense has yielded the 4th-most TDs through the air in the league to WRs: 1.30 per game this year.
The Washington cornerbacks profile as the worst CB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
Cedrick Wilson Jr. ranks in just the 25th percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a bad 12.5 mark since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
With an awful rate of just 0.08 per game through the air (25th percentile), Cedrick Wilson Jr. ranks among the bottom receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among wide receivers since the start of last season.