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Cedrick Wilson

Cedrick Wilson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Cedrick Wilson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+700/-1300).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +840 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +700.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • This year, the deficient Washington Commanders pass defense has yielded a staggering 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 4th-worst rate in football.
  • The Commanders defense has yielded the 4th-most TDs through the air in the league to WRs: 1.30 per game this year.
  • The Washington cornerbacks profile as the worst CB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
  • Cedrick Wilson Jr. ranks in just the 25th percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a bad 12.5 mark since the start of last season.
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • With an awful rate of just 0.08 per game through the air (25th percentile), Cedrick Wilson Jr. ranks among the bottom receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among wide receivers since the start of last season.

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