Cedrick Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Cedrick Wilson

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 18, 2025

Updated Jan 5, 2026 1:07 AM UTC

Analysis

Cedrick Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are massive underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 58.2% of their downs: the 10th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect Cedrick Wilson Jr. to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game in this week's game (10.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.2% in games he has played).
This year, the porous New England Patriots pass defense has conceded a whopping 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 7th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Dolphins to call the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 51.8 plays per game.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
Cedrick Wilson Jr.'s 0.8 adjusted catches per game this year reflects a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last year's 2.0 mark.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England's LB corps has been outstanding this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the NFL.