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Cedric Tillman

Cedric Tillman Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Cedric Tillman Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+550/-770).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +550 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +550.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is implied by the Browns being a -3-point underdog in this game.
  • The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a monstrous 60.5 per game on average).
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
  • Cedric Tillman has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 17.6% this year, which ranks him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
  • Cedric Tillman's 39.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 30.1.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.4% pass rate.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see only 125.5 plays on offense run: the fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • Cedric Tillman's 58.7% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a substantial decrease in his receiving ability over last year's 65.9% rate.

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