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Cedric Tillman

Cedric Tillman Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Cedric Tillman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-157/+117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -148 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -157.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Browns are an enormous 7-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • The projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The Browns have called the most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.6 plays per game.
  • The Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.
  • The leading projections forecast Cedric Tillman to notch 6.6 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 76th percentile among WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Cedric Tillman's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 65.9% to 50.0%.
  • As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Green Bay's group of CBs has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the best in football.

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