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Cedric Tillman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-141).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -10.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are giant underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 131.0 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Buffalo's collection of CBs has been terrible this year, projecting as the 9th-worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Right now, the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the league (58.8% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Browns.Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally lead to decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher run volume.Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Cleveland Browns grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.Cedric Tillman's pass-catching performance worsened this season, compiling a measly 1.6 adjusted catches compared to 3.3 last season.
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