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Cedric Tillman

Cedric Tillman Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Cedric Tillman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-154/+121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -191 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +121.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Browns, who are big -7.5-point underdogs.
  • Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.6 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The Cleveland Browns have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
  • The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.1 per game) this year.
  • Cedric Tillman has gone out for fewer passes this year (75.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (56.7%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Browns to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 24-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher run volume.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Browns ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.
  • Cedric Tillman's receiving talent has declined this year, compiling just 2.3 adjusted receptions vs 3.3 last year.
  • Cedric Tillman's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 65.9% to 56.3%.

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