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Cedric Tillman

Cedric Tillman Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Cedric Tillman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+106/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Browns are an enormous 7-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • The projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The Browns have called the most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.6 plays per game.
  • The Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.
  • The leading projections forecast Cedric Tillman to notch 6.6 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 76th percentile among WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Cedric Tillman's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 65.9% to 50.0%.
  • Cedric Tillman's 6.1 adjusted yards per target this season shows a substantial decline in his receiving skills over last season's 8.1 figure.
  • Cedric Tillman is positioned as one of the worst WRs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 22nd percentile.
  • Since the start of last season, the formidable Green Bay Packers defense has allowed a meager 124.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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