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Case Keenum

Case Keenum TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Case Keenum TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+200).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual game plan.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see 136.0 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The predictive model expects Case Keenum to throw 36.8 passes in this game, on balance: the 10th-most out of all QBs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 52.9% red zone pass rate.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest rate in the NFL against the Cleveland Browns defense this year (61.9% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the daunting Browns defense has given up a meager 1.21 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 8th-best rate in the league.
  • As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Cleveland's collection of LBs has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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