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Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

Carson Wentz Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1150/-1450).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1200 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +1150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.

The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

At the present time, the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (64.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Vikings.

The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Chargers defense this year (65.8% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the daunting Chargers defense has allowed a meager 1.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 2nd-best rate in football.

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