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Calvin Ridley

Calvin Ridley Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Calvin Ridley Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+330/-475).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -485 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -475.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Titans, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs.
  • The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 129.3 offensive plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
  • While Calvin Ridley has garnered 10.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Tennessee's pass game near the end zone this week at 18.7%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Calvin Ridley, who has garnered 3.1% of his team's carries near the end zone since the start of last season (95th percentile), is fortunate to be in the unique position (for a wide receiver) of being involved in the Tennessee red zone ground game.
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Titans ranks as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season.
  • Calvin Ridley's 37.6% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects an impressive reduction in his receiving talent over last year's 56.4% mark.
  • The receiving TD field reads "0" on Calvin Ridley's stats page this year.
  • Calvin Ridley has run for 0.06 TDs per game on the ground last year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL among WRs and TEs (93rd percentile).

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