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Calvin Ridley

Calvin Ridley Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Calvin Ridley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+114/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -127.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is implied by the Titans being a -6-point underdog this week.
  • In this week's game, Calvin Ridley is expected by the projection model to slot into the 83rd percentile among wide receivers with 7.6 targets.
  • Calvin Ridley places in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a staggering 65.1 mark since the start of last season.
  • Since the start of last season, the porous Indianapolis Colts pass defense has yielded a staggering 70.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the biggest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.4% pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Titans to run the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The Titans O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Calvin Ridley's 48.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a meaningful drop-off in his receiving talent over last season's 56.4% mark.
  • The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 3rd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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