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Calvin Austin III

Calvin Austin III Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Calvin Austin III Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+305/-365).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +295 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +305.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • While Calvin Austin III has received 8.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Pittsburgh's passing offense near the goal line in this contest at 14.8%.
  • The New England Patriots pass defense has been torched for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) versus WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).
  • As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's collection of LBs has been atrocious since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 57.1% rate of running the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-most run-centric offense in the league in these situations has been the Pittsburgh Steelers.
  • In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 29.10 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.
  • The New England Patriots defense has given up the 10th-fewest receiving TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.95 per game since the start of last season.

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