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Calvin Austin III Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+340/-350).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -390 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -350.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically lead to better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.Calvin Austin III has accounted for a massive 31.8% of his offense's air yards this year: 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs.Calvin Austin III's 46.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 32.8.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The projections expect the Steelers to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 50.8 plays per game.Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.This year, the tough Chargers defense has given up a paltry 58.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.This year, the fierce Los Angeles Chargers defense has yielded a puny 0.44 TDs through the air per game to opposing WRs: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.
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