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Calvin Austin III Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+155/-220).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -220.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 61.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically lead to better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.Calvin Austin III's 46.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 32.8.When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The projections expect the Steelers to run the 7th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 50.8 plays per game.Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.This year, the tough Chargers defense has given up a paltry 58.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.
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