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Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Cincinnati Bengals vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Caleb Williams TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-149/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -159 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -149.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Bears to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in football vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Bengals defense has conceded the 2nd-most passing TDs in the league: 2.38 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 4th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league in the red zone (52.9% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bears.

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