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Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Caleb Williams TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -107 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -103.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.
  • The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 59.0 plays per game.
  • The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
  • Since the start of last season, the shaky Dallas Cowboys defense has been gouged for a staggering 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-highest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 11th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Cowboys, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.2 per game) since the start of last season.

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