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Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams TD Passes
Player Prop Week 19

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Caleb Williams TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +103 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -103.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Chicago Bears this year (a monstrous 60.7 per game on average).
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
  • The Bears offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.
  • This year, the poor Green Bay Packers defense has been gouged for a monstrous 72.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-highest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bears as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Bears to be the 8th-least pass-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 52.9% red zone pass rate.
  • The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Green Bay's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.

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