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Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Caleb Williams TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-263/+193).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -256 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +193.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The most plays in football have been run by the Chicago Bears this year (a massive 61.8 per game on average).
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
  • This year, the anemic Green Bay Packers defense has been gouged for a staggering 72.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-largest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (51.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Bears.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This year, the imposing Packers defense has given up a puny 1.25 TDs through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 9th-smallest rate in football.
  • The Packers safeties project as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in defending receivers.

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