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Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Caleb Williams Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 244.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 236.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 244.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears have a new play-caller this season in head coach Ben Johnson, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are predicted by the predictive model to call 68.8 offensive plays in this game: the most among all teams this week.
  • The highest number of plays in football have been run by the Bears this year (a monstrous 61.4 per game on average).
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Bears are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 53.8% of their chances: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Detroit Lions defense this year (66.3% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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