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Cade Otton

Cade Otton Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Cade Otton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-285).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -285.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 134.1 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • While Cade Otton has garnered 3.4% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Tampa Bay's passing attack near the goal line this week at 17.3%.
  • The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (81.1%) to TEs this year (81.1%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
  • After accruing 35.0 air yards per game last season, Cade Otton has regressed heavily this season, currently averaging 25.0 per game.
  • Cade Otton's 25.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 39.9.
  • With a lousy ratio of only 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Cade Otton stands among the weakest receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to TEs this year.

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