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Cade Otton

Cade Otton Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Cade Otton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+310/-320).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -340 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -320.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6-point underdog in this game.
  • The model projects the Buccaneers as the 6th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
  • The predictive model expects Cade Otton to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game near the end zone in this contest (14.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.3% in games he has played).
  • The Detroit Lions defense has yielded the 8th-most receiving TDs in football to tight ends: 0.50 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 61.2 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • After accruing 35.0 air yards per game last season, Cade Otton has fallen off this season, now pacing 21.0 per game.
  • Cade Otton's 22.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 39.9.
  • Cade Otton grades out in the 1st percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.
  • This year, the imposing Detroit Lions defense has conceded a measly 68.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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