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Cade Otton

Cade Otton Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Cade Otton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+315/-350).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -320 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -350.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread implies a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (59.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.
  • Our trusted projections expect Cade Otton to be a more important option in his offense's pass game near the goal line in this contest (19.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.2% in games he has played).
  • The Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • The Bills linebackers project as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are forecasted by the model to call only 61.9 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
  • Cade Otton has put up quite a few less air yards this season (24.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
  • Cade Otton's 26.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 39.9.

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