Cade Otton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Cade Otton

NFL · Player Props

Cade Otton

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 8:16 PM EST

Analysis

Cade Otton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-129/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.3% pass rate.
At the moment, the 7th-quickest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Buccaneers.
The Commanders defense has been a glaring pass funnel last year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (35.4 per game) last year.
Cade Otton has run a route on 89.6% of his team's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to TEs.
In this game, Cade Otton is projected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 76th percentile among TEs with 3.9 targets.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
With a bad 3.08 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (10th percentile) last year, Cade Otton places among the best tight ends in the pass game in the league in the open field.
Last year, the tough Washington Commanders defense has surrendered a measly 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 2nd-best in football.
Last year, the formidable Commanders defense has given up the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing TEs: a meager 6.7 yards.

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