Cade Otton Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Cade Otton

NFL · Player Props

Cade Otton

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Cade Otton Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+359/-709).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -639 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -709.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in football (77.6%) vs. TEs this year (77.6%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 9th-best collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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