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Bryce Young

Bryce Young TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Bryce Young TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+183/-194).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +176 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +183.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their typical approach.
  • At the moment, the 4th-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (60.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Carolina Panthers.
  • In throwing a staggering 29.3 pass attempts per game this year, Bryce Young ranks among the top quarterbacks in the league (78th percentile) in this statistic.
  • Since the start of last season, the weak New England Patriots defense has surrendered a whopping 1.60 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 8th-largest rate in the league.
  • The New England cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Panthers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Carolina Panthers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.0 per game on average).
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Patriots defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the league.
  • Bryce Young is positioned as one of the least on-target QBs in the NFL this year with a 59.7% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 13th percentile.

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