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Bryce Young

Bryce Young Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 7

New York Jets vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Bryce Young Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-107/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -117.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Panthers as the 8th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The Carolina Panthers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 59.5 plays per game.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually cause lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
  • Bryce Young's running effectiveness (6.69 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (77th percentile among QBs).
  • This year, the anemic New York Jets run defense has been torched for a monstrous 132.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 10th-most in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are expected by the model to call just 61.0 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • In this contest, Bryce Young is expected by the projection model to earn the 6th-fewest carries among all quarterbacks with 2.6.
  • Bryce Young has been a much smaller piece of his team's rushing attack this year (6.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (11.5%).
  • Bryce Young's 10.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year represents a meaningful decrease in his rushing talent over last year's 18.0 rate.
  • The New York defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

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