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Brock Wright

Brock Wright Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Brock Wright Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1150/-8750).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -4300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -8750.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The 5th-most plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Brock Wright has been one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, catching an outstanding 83.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 76th percentile.
  • With an impressive ratio of 0.27 per game through the air (84th percentile), Brock Wright stands as one of the leading receiving TD-scorers in football among TEs since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Lions offensive gameplan to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator John Morton now calling the plays.
  • An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a heavy 10-point favorite in this game.
  • The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
  • The Browns pass defense has allowed the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.1%) versus TEs since the start of last season (68.1%).

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