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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

San Francisco 49ers vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Brock Purdy Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+570/-700).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -910 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -700.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Brock Purdy comes in as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a fantastic 68.3% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 81st percentile.
  • Brock Purdy has been among the top TD passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 1.50 per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
  • This year, the shaky Titans defense has been torched for a colossal 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Tennessee's group of CBs has been lousy this year, ranking as the worst in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 12.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to pass on 52.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have only 126.7 offensive plays run: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect Brock Purdy to attempt 31.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.
  • With an excellent ratio of 0.17 touchdowns on the ground per game (80th percentile), Brock Purdy has been as one of the top rushing quarterbacks in the league this year.

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