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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

Brock Purdy's 76.0% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a substantial improvement in his passing precision over last season's 66.2% rate.

Since the start of last season, the poor Jaguars defense has conceded a staggering 1.70 passing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the 49ers to be the 9th-least pass-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 54.3% red zone pass rate.

Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.

The predictive model expects Brock Purdy to attempt 32.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

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