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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-147/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +132 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
  • Brock Purdy's passing precision has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 66.2% to 70.0%.
  • With an excellent ratio of 2.00 per game (97th percentile), Brock Purdy stands among the top TD throwers in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the San Francisco 49ers offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.78 seconds per snap.
  • The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year (67.2% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the daunting Seahawks defense has conceded a meager 1.25 passing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-smallest rate in the league.
  • The Seahawks safeties grade out as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

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