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Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-235/+180).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +180.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Brock Purdy comes in as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a fantastic 68.3% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 81st percentile.Brock Purdy has been among the top TD passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 1.50 per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.This year, the shaky Titans defense has been torched for a colossal 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.The Tennessee Titans defense has yielded the 8th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.69 per game this year.When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Tennessee's group of CBs has been lousy this year, ranking as the worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 12.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their typical approach.Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to pass on 52.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have only 126.7 offensive plays run: the 4th-fewest out of all the games this week.Our trusted projections expect Brock Purdy to attempt 31.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.
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