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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.

Brock Purdy's 73.1% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates an impressive progression in his throwing precision over last year's 69.6% figure.

Brock Purdy has been among the top touchdown throwers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 1.84 per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in football against the Patriots defense since the start of last season (72.2% Adjusted Completion%).

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England's LB corps has been dreadful since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 11.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to pass on 51.8% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 50.0% red zone pass rate.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are projected by the predictive model to call only 60.2 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.

The 49ers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.

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