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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 2

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Vikings defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

With a fantastic 69.6% Adjusted Completion% (100th percentile) last year, Brock Purdy has been as one of the most accurate QBs in the league.

Brock Purdy has been one of the best touchdown passers in the NFL last year, averaging a remarkable 1.94 per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

Since the start of last season, the porous Minnesota Vikings defense has given up a massive 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the largest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6 points.

The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

At the present time, the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL in the red zone (52.9% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the San Francisco 49ers.

The predictive model expects this game to see the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.3 plays per game.

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