Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 10, 2024 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Brock Purdy checks in as one of the most on-target QBs in football last year with a stellar 68.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.
With a terrific rate of 1.94 per game (95th percentile), Brock Purdy rates as one of the leading touchdown passers in the league last year.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a measly 53.5 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically cause lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.

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