Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-142/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +118 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the league vs. the Cardinals defense since the start of last season (73.5%).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded the 3rd-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.65 per game since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 14.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 54.3% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The projections expect Brock Purdy to attempt 30.5 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-fewest of all quarterbacks.